Tags

Type	Jul 14	Jul 15	Jul 16
Active	35%	20%	20%
Minor	20%	5%	5%
Moderate	5%	1%	1%
Strong	1%	1%	1%
Kp Index Prediction
00-03UT	2.67	2.67	2.67
03-06UT	2.67	3.00	3.00
06-09UT	3.67	2.67	2.67
09-12UT	2.67	2.67	2.33
12-15UT	2.67	2.33	2.33
15-18UT	1.67	1.00	2.00
18-21UT	2.33	1.00	1.00
21-00UT	2.67	2.33	2.33
Solar Activity
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 4140 (S14E54, Cao/beta) produced the vast majority of the flare activity, including an M1.6/1f flare (R1-Minor radio blackout), the largest of the period, at 12/1210 UTC. Regions 4137 (N19W66, Dso/beta), 4139 (N22E03, Dai/beta), and newly numbered 4141 (S13W76, Cao/beta) all exhibited growth, while the remaining regions were mostly stable or showed slight decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.
Solar Wind
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect increasing positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total magnetic field strength reached 14 nT early in the period before decreasing slightly to end the period near 7 nT. The Bz component briefly reached as far south as -10 nT, and solar wind speeds steadily increased to a peak near 725 km/s. The phi angle remained positive throughout most of the period.
Energetic Particle
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.