The Chip Witch Blog

03.06.2025 at 08:49:56 UTC

Type	Jun 3	Jun 4	Jun 5
Active	10%	30%	30%
Minor	30%	30%	30%
Moderate	30%	15%	15%
Strong	30%	5%	5%
Kp Index Prediction
00-03UT	5.67	3.00	5.00
03-06UT	5.00	2.33	4.00
06-09UT	7.00	2.33	3.33
09-12UT	5.67	3.00	3.00
12-15UT	3.00	3.00	2.33
15-18UT	3.00	4.00	2.33
18-21UT	3.00	4.00	3.00
21-00UT	3.67	4.67	3.67
Solar Activity
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to a pair of M-class flares from Region 4100 (N10W28, Ekc/beta-gamma). The first was an M3.3/2b flare at 02/1118 UTC, and the second was an M1.2 flare at 02/2142 UTC. Not quite an M flare, but there was also a C9.3 flare at 02/2100 UTC from an area just beyond the SE limb. Slight decay was observed in both Regions 4100 and 4099 (S14W37, Dki/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
Solar Wind
Solar wind parameters reflected declining influence of the 31 May CME and possibly the arrival of a slower CME from later on 31 May. Total field decreased from 14 nT to 10 nT while the Bz component rotated southward reaching -10 nT. Solar wind speed decreased from 909 km/s to near 580 km/s. Phi angle rotated into a mostly negative sector after 02/0635 UTC. At 02/2103 UTC, total field began to increase to 15 nT, Bz saw a deflection to -12 nT, and wind speed saw a small increase to peak just over 700 km/s. These enhancements are likely attributed to the second, slower CME that left the Sun on 31 May.
Energetic Particle
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 1,570 pfu at 02/1550 UTC.